Phase 4 (2025-2027)
GlacierMIP4 will focus on projections of the regional- to global-scale evolution of glaciers under the latest generation of climate forcing (CMIP6 and/or CMIP7). The timeline for GlacierMIP4 is established to ensure that the resulting findings can be incorporated into the IPCC AR7 publication.
Phase 3 (2021-2025)
GlacierMIP3 aimed to quantify the equilibrium volume and area of all glaciers outside the ice sheets if global mean temperatures were to stabilize at different temperature levels (e.g. +1.5°C, +2°C, relative to pre-industrial) and how much time would be required for glaciers to reach their new equilibrium. Results were published in Zekollari and Schuster et al. 2025. The stabilization experiments were based on 8 glacier models forced with 80 constant climatic scenarios derived from 5 global climate model models.
Find more detailed information about GlacierMIP3 – including the protocol for the experiments – on our GitHub.
Phase 2 (2019-2020)
During GlacierMIP2, all participating modeling groups made global-scale glacier volume projections until 2100 based on standardized experiments using the following data and variables and protocols.
1)
Glacier models are forced by the following GCMs (provided necessary data for specific glacier model are available):
2)
GCM runs forced by emission scenarios RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. If more model runs are possible, use RCP4.5 and then RCP6.0 from these models.
3)
r1i1p1 realizations of the climate models above
4)
Glacier inventory RGI6.0. For the Greenland periphery all glaciers with connectivity level 0 and 1 should be computed (level 2 glaciers should be excluded).
5)
Standardized initial ice thickness provided by Matthias Huss based on RGI6.0
6)
Assuming density of ice = 900 kg/m3 for conversion of glacier volume to mass
7)
Output is reported for all RGI primary regions (global projections are targeted including all 19 RGI regions but minimum requirement for participation is the computation of 1 complete RGI region)
8)
Assuming ocean area of 362.5 x10^6 km2 (following Cogley et al. 2011) to convert volume change to
Results from Phase 2 were published in Marzeion et al., 2020 (Earth’s Future). Projections were based on 11 glacier models using up to 10 GCMs and 4 RCPs, leading to a total of 288 glacier ensemble members. Results also informed the IPCC AR6 report.
Phase 1 (2015-2019)
A comparison of the glacier volume change projections 2015-2100 from six previously published modeling studies was performed including >250 individual model runs based on 26 GCMs and four emission scenarios. Results were presented at several international conferences. Results were published in Hock et al. 2019a and also directly used in the IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (Hock et al. 2019b).
References
Marzeion, B., R. Hock, B. Anderson, A. Bliss, N. Champollion, K. Fujita, M. Huss, W. Immerzeel, P. Kraaijenbrink, J-H. Malles, F. Maussion, Valentina Radic, D. R. Rounce, A. Sakai, S. Shannon, R. van de Wal, H. Zekollari, 2020. Partitioning the Uncertainty of Ensemble Projections of Global Glacier Mass Change. Earth’s Future 12, e2019EF001470, doi: 10.1029/2019EF001470.
Hock, R., Bliss, A., Marzeion, B., Giesen, R.H., Hirabayashi, Y., Huss, M., Radić, V. and Slangen, A.B., 2019a. GlacierMIP–A model intercomparison of global-scale glacier mass-balance models and projections. Journal of Glaciology, 65(251), pp.453-467. 453-467. doi:10.1017/jog.2019.22.
Hock, R., G. Rasul, C. Adler, B. Cáceres, S. Gruber, Y. Hirabayashi, M. Jackson, S. Kang, A. Kääb, S. Kutuzov, A. Milner, U. Molau, S. Morin, B. Orlove and H. Steltzer, 2019b. High Mountain Areas. In: Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). In press. (https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/chapter/chapter-2/)
IPCC, 2021. Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 2391 pp. doi:10.1017/9781009157896.
IPCC, 2021. Chapter 9: Ocean, Cryosphere and Sea Level Change. In: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Cambridge University Press. doi:10.1017/9781009157896.011.
Zekollari*, H., Schuster*, L., Maussion, F., Hock, R., Marzeion, B., Rounce, D.R., Compagno, L., Fujita, K., Huss, M., James, M., Kraaijenbrink, P.D.A., Lipscomb, W.H., Minallah, S., Oberrauch, M., Van Tricht, L., Champollion, N., Edwards, T., Farinotti, D., Immerzeel, W., Leguy, G., Sakai, A., 2025. Glacier preservation doubled by limiting warming to 1.5°C versus 2.7°C, Science 388, 979-983, doi: 10.1126/science.adu4675 [*equal contribution]