This workshop will bring together anyone interested in the predictability of polar sea-ice on seasonal to inter-annual timescales. Contributions will include presentations on understanding causes of inter-annual polar climate variability, as well as idealised predictability studies, and operational forecasts. This workshop is a follow-up to the Sea Ice Prediction Workshop held in Boulder in April 2014, and forms part of PCPI’s Initiative 3 on polar predictability.

Dates: 8th-10th April 2015
Location: University of Reading, UK

Contact Ed Hawkins for more information.

Workshop on Polar Predictability: draft programme v4

To be held in GU01 lecture theatre, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading (8th – 10th April 2015)

All talks are 15 minutes, leaving time for discussion in each session.

Wednesday 8th April

10.30 Registration and coffee
11.00 Welcome & Introduction

Session 1 – Processes I (Chair: Steffen Tietsche)

Jeff Ridley: Diagnosing model atmospheric state & its impact on predictability of sea ice radiative balance
Adrian MacDonald: Meteorological change in the Ross Sea region and its link to Antarctic sea ice trends
Amna Jrrar: Antarctic Sea variability in the AO-UKCA model
Felix Pithan: GASS model intercomparison on polar airmass transition

13.00 Lunch

Session 2 – Processes II (Chair: Ed Blanchard-Wrigglesworth)

David Schroeder: Impact of melt ponds on Arctic summer sea ice in the HadGEM3 global coupled climate model
Stefan Juricke: The impact of stochastic sea ice parametrizations on seasonal to decadal time scales
Jorge Blanco: Preliminary screening of sea ice sensitivity in CICE 5.0 using statistical tests for nonrandomness
Nat Melia: Bias correction of CMIP5 simulations of sea ice thickness

15.30 Tea & coffee

Session 3 – Variability (Chair: Francois Massonnet)

Adeline Bichet: Attribution of high northern latitude trends (1980-2010) using pattern scaling
Ed Hawkins: Variability in sea ice extent trends
Neven Fuckar: Interannual sea ice variability modes in the Northern Hemisphere
Paul Kushner: Does external forcing interfere with the AMOC’s influence on North Atlantic & Arctic climate?

17.30 Finish
19.30 Workshop Dinner at Carluccios

Thursday 9th April


Session 4 – Predictability I

Francois Massonnet: The 2014 all-time record Antarctic sea ice extent: origins and predictability
Jonny Day: Will Arctic sea ice thickness initialization improve seasonal forecast skill?
Mitch Bushuk: Sea ice re-emergence mechanisms in a model hierarchy
Steffen Tietsche: Simulated Arctic Ocean heat budget in seasonal to interannual predictions

10.30 Tea & coffee
11.00 Departmental Seminar – Cecilia Bitz
Can ice shelf melt suppress polar amplification in Antarctica?
12.00 Linking to YOPP – Helge Goessling
12.45 Lunch

Session 5 – Predictability II (Chair: Virginie Guemas)

Ed Blanchard: Model skill and sensitivity to initial conditions in a sea-ice prediction system
Wei Cheng: Assess Regional Sea-Ice Predictability Using the CESM Large Ensemble
Helge Goessling: Prospects for seasonal-to-interannual forecasts of the Arctic sea ice edge
Steffen Tietsche: Seasonal predictability of the winter sea ice edge due to ocean preconditioning
Francois Massonnet: Impact of high-resolution on seasonal skill, reliability & predictability in EC-Earth simulations

15.30 Tea & coffee

Session 6 – Operational predictions I (Chair: Jonny Day)

Cecilia Bitz: Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN)
Daniel Senftleben: Sea-ice forecast skill in the MiKlip decadal climate predictions
Rym Msadek: Predicting regional summer sea ice conditions in the GFDL and MPI initialized forecasts
Drew Peterson: Seasonal forecasts of sea ice with GloSea5

17.30 Finish

Friday 10th April


Session 7 – Operational predictions II (Chair: Mitch Bushuk)

Ed Blockley: Operational short-range polar ocean-ice forecasting with the Met Office FOAM system and future plans for short- and medium-range prediction
Sarah Keeley: Sea ice in the ECMWF medium to monthly range forecasts
Muyin Wang: Initial assessment of CFSv2 predictability on Arctic sea ice and atmospheric forcings
Xiaojun Yuan: Seasonal prediction of Arctic sea ice by a linear Markov model

10.30 Tea & coffee

Session 8 – Operational predictions III (Chair: Jorge Urrego Blanco)

Virginie Guemas: Impact of sea ice initialisation on sea ice & atmosphere prediction skill on seasonal timescales
Felix Bunzel: Dependence of seasonal sea-ice prediction skill on underlying sea-ice data set
Drew Peterson: The effects of sea ice initialization on multi-model seasonal forecasts
Neven Fuckar: Impact of different bias correction methods on Northern Hemisphere sea ice prediction in a set of seasonal forecast systems

12.30 Discussion – ways ahead
13.30 Lunch
14.30 End of workshop
Name Affiliation, Country
Bacon, Sheldon National Oceanography Centre, UK
Bichet, Adeline University of Toronto, Canada
Bitz, Cecilia University of Washington, USA
Blanchard, Ed University of Washington, USA
Blanco, Jorge Rolando Urrego        
Dalhousie University, USA
Blockley, Ed MetOffice, UK
Brooks, Ian University of Leeds, UK
Bunzel, Felix Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, Germany
Bushuk, Mitch New York University, USA
Cheng, Wei National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, USA
Day, Jonny University of Reading, UK
Fuckar, Neven IC3 Catalan Climate Sciences Institute, Spain
Goessling, Helge Alfred Wegner Institute, Germany
Goldsmith, Andrew University College London, UK
Guemas, Virginie IC3 Catalan Climate Sciences Institute, Spain
Hawkins, Ed University of Reading, UK
Jahre-Nilsen, Catherine Statoil, Norway
Jrrar, Amna New York University, USA
Juricke, Stephan Alfred Wegener Institute, Germany
Keeley, Sarah European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, UK
Kushner, Paul University of Toronto, Canada
Marchi, Sylvain Université Catholique de Louvain, Belgium
Massonnet, François Université Catholique de Louvain, Belgium
McDonald, Adrian University of Canterbury, New Zealand
Melia, Nathanael University of Reading, UK
Msadek, Rym National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, USA
Peterson, Drew University of Reading, UK
Pithan, Felix University of Reading, UK
Ridley, Jeff MetOffice, UK
Schroeder, David University of Reading, UK
Senftleben, Daniel Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt, Germany
Tietsche, Steffen University of Reading, UK
Tivy, Adrienne International Arctic Research Center, USA
Wang, Muyin National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, USA
Yuan, Xiaojun University of Columbia, USA


Getting to Reading

The University of Reading is in a prime location in the South-East of England and has excellent transport links. Reading’s railway station has high speed links to and from London Paddington, as well as regular services to and from other cities around the UK. There are direct services to and from both London Heathrow and London Gatwick Airports. The University is close to the M4 motorway allowing easy access by car.

By Air

From London Heathrow (LHR)

You should take the RailAir coach to Reading. Coaches run frequently (every 30 minutes) and the journey to Reading station takes about 1 hour. A single ticket costs £16 (May 2015) and should be purchased from the National Express sales desk at Heathrow Central Bus Station or in advance via the RailAir website.

Coaches leave from Stands 6 to 15a at the Central Bus Station (except for Terminal 5 where they leave from Stand 9). Please check before boarding.  RailAir bus stops are located within the Central Bus Station and are sign posted. For further information please call +44 (0) 1189 579425.

For latest prices and timetables, see the RailAir website.

Directions from Terminals 1-4 to the Central Bus Station, and to the Terminal 5 Bus and Coach Station are listed below:

Terminal 1

From International arrivals follow signs for the Underground and Central Bus Station. From UK and Ireland follow signs for the Underground and Terminals 2 and 3, which direct you towards the lifts. You will then see the signs for the Underground and Central Bus Station. Use the lifts to reach the basement level.

Terminal 2

Leave the building through the doorway immediately in front of the exit from customs and follow signs for Underground and buses, which direct you towards the below-surface travelator. Alternatively, you may prefer to use the street-level access by exiting the terminal building through the revolving doors on the ground floor.

Terminal 3

Follow signs for the Underground and Central Bus Station, taking the ramp or stairs to access the below-surface subway link.

Terminal 4

Use the FREE Heathrow Express shuttle service. Travel in the carriages at the rear of the train and alight at Terminals 1, 2 and 3. Follow signs for Terminals 2 and 3 but as soon as you see signs for buses and underground follow these instead. Alternatively, you can use bus routes 482 and 490 from Terminal 4 to Terminal 5, which run up to 8 times an hour and are free to use (make sure the bus is heading towards Terminal 5 before you board).

Terminal 5

Follow signs for local buses upon leaving arrivals. If you do not already have a ticket these can be purchased from the National Express sales desk which is located inside the terminal building (turn left out of arrivals) opposite Costa Coffee. You will find Stand 9 by exiting the terminal building opposite the National Express sales desk.’

From London Gatwick (LGW)

Direct trains run to Reading from Gatwick Airport every hour and take about 1hr 15 minutes. A single ticket costs around £15 and can be purchased at the station in Gatwick airport.

By Rail

Reading is a mainline train station and is easily accessible from most other places around the UK.  There are direct trains from a number of major cities as well as a large number of routes through London.  If you are travelling from or via London the best (and quickest) route to take is from London’s Paddington station.

Travelling from London Paddington

Trains from Paddington to Reading run approximately every 15-20 minutes throughout the day and the average journey time is around 30 minutes.

Travelling from Reading train station to the University

PLUSBUS is available in Reading. PLUSBUS is a cheap bus pass (like a travelcard) that you buy with your train ticket at any National Rail station booking office, by phone or online. It gives you unlimited bus travel around the whole urban area of the origin and/or destination town of your train journey, including to and from the rail station.


Once you arrive at the train station you can walk or cycle to either campus, please see instructions left. If you choose to take a taxi or bus, the bus stops and taxi rank can be found outside the station. A taxi will cost you approximately £8 and a single bus journey will cost you £1.90 (return £3.60. You will need the exact money as the buses do not give change).

The buses that run from the train station to the University are as follows:

To Whiteknights campus (Shinfield Road)

Numbers 9 or 21

To Whiteknights campus (Earley Gate)

Numbers 17, 19a, 19b or 19c

To London Road campus

Numbers 9 or 21

*Please note: The number 9 stops at the Shinfield Road entrance and that numbers 20, 20a and 21 stop on campus.

Further information about travelling to the University by bus from the surrounding area available from the Reading Buses website.

This information is from, see that website for most up to date info on getting to Reading.


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