Large-scale climate variability in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean over decades to centuries, and links to extra-polar climate

24-26 March 2015

The venue will be the Martin Johnson House at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, USA

Organizers: Julie Jones, Hugues Goosse, Sarah Gille

This workshop will bring together atmospheric scientists, oceanographers, and cryosphere specialists and expertise in paleoclimate, in historic data, and in the modern instrumental record, from both the polar and extrapolar communities. This will provide an opportunity to connect the recent past with the paleo record and to compare model behavior with historic and proxy data.

The outcome of the workshop will be an updated assessment of the historic instrumental and proxy data available to estimate past climate, and of polar-extra polar linkages. The workshop will provide a forum for exploring possible improvements in estimates of changes at the surface (mainly temperature and sea ice extent), of the SAM, and of the non-annular patterns of large-scale climate variability.

Overview

Numerical models indicate that the high latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere experience significant multi-decadal variability. Unfortunately, instrumental records are of insufficient duration to characterize this variability. For instance, the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), which describes the leading mode of variability in atmospheric circulation in the Southern Hemisphere, can be well estimated since the International Geophysical Year of 1958, when systematic observations began at Antarctic scientific stations. It has however been estimated through sparse observations and reanalysis back to the 1870s.

To understand the changes, improved analysis of the full climate system, including sea ice, sea surface temperature, Antarctic temperatures, and ocean circulation, as well as non-annular modes of atmospheric circulation such as the Amundsen Sea Low, and the emerging important links of high latitude climate to extra-polar latitudes are needed. These present a greater challenge, with systematic measurements beginning in 1979 with the advent of satellite measurements/observations, and oceanic variables such as temperature and salinity profiles with Argo floats in ~2004.

To date, there has not been a concentrated effort to evaluate paleoclimate proxy data in the Southern Hemisphere in combination with older instrumental data and records from ships’ logs to provide best estimates of past climate, nor has there been a significant effort to characterize the non-annular components of historic variability.

The objective of this workshop is to study changes in large-scale patterns of Antarctic climate variability over the last decades to centuries and the extrapolar-polar connections by combining proxy records, historical data, modern instrumental records and model results.

Local information

Venue

The venue will be the Martin Johnson House at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, USA

Hotel

The Hotel La Jolla is about a 20-30 minute walk (more or less along the beach) to our meeting room at Scripps (see directions below). They will run a shuttle to the venue if people would prefer not to walk. A group of rooms has been block booked at $155 USD/night plus tax for the time period from Sunday 22 March through Friday 27 March. Reservations must be made by 1 March 2015. You can book by calling +1 619-515-3038 or using the web link below.If you have trouble, you can contact Sarah Gile’s administrative assistant, Tomomi Ushii

PAGES PCPI Workshop:
https://gc.synxis.com/rez.aspx?Hotel=52927&Chain=10179&arrive=3/19/2015&depart=3/31/2015&adult=1&child=0&group=1503CAS

Ground Transportation

As you exit the San Diego airport, you can follow ground transportation signs for taxis or shared ride/shuttle services. There are dispatchers for both who will help you out.

Taxi fare to the Hotel La Jolla should be about $50-$55 + tip.

Super Shuttle (http://www.supershuttle.com/) has a negotiated rate to the Hotel La Jolla of $20 per person + tip. You can book Super Shuttle in advance, if you would like, but normally that is not essential.

Other shuttle companies are also available but might not have negotiated rates to area hotels. (Except at the commuter terminal, dispatchers are different for Super Shuttle and for other shuttle companies.)

To get from the Hotel La Jolla to the Martin Johnson House, you can request a shuttle from the hotel, walk, or drive.

To request a shuttle, please ask the valet about 30 minutes prior to your planned departure time. Shuttles are available on a first-come first-serve basis. It would be wise if workshop participants coordinated their shuttle plans.

To walk, allow about half an hour for a 1.2 mile walk. Head north on La Jolla Shores Dr. At Naga Way (on the Scripps campus) turn left, and then go right on Biological Grade, past the CUPS coffee stand and up the hill. The Martin Johnson House will be on your left after the Institute for Geophysics and Planetary Physics. (You can also walk along the beach or though the neighborhood, one or two blocks west of La Jolla Shores Dr. Regardless of your initial route, when you reach Scripps you will want to head up hill on Biological Grade.)

If you choose to drive, you will need a parking permit. Please let us know in advance, so that we can secure enough permits. To reach the Martin Johnson House, drive north from the hotel on La Jolla Shores Dr., turn left on Naga Way, right on Biological Grade, and you’ll find the Martin Johnson House on your left after the Institute for Geophysics and Planetary Physics. You can park in the IGPP parking lot (P010) if space is available, or in any of the parking lots further up the hill. We pay for parking permits, so please try to carpool.

Here’s a general map: https://scripps.ucsd.edu/about/maps

And here’s a map with parking lots identified:
https://scripps.ucsd.edu/sites/scripps.ucsd.edu/files/node/29/edit/CampusMap-Scripps2014-grid-noPhotos.pdf

Participant List

Name	Affiliation
Abram, Nerilie	Australian National University, Australia
Canziani, Pablo	Universidad Tecnológica Nacional, Argentina
Charman, Dan	University of Exeter, UK
Clem, Kyle	Victoria University Wellington, NZ
Crosta, Xavier	University of Bordeaux, France
Diamond, Howard	Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand
Eisenman, Ian	Scripps, USA
England, Matthew	UNSW, Australia
Fogt, Ryan	Ohio University, USA
Gille, Sarah	Scripps, USA
Goodwin, Ian	Macquarie University, Australia
Goosse, Hugues	UCL, Belgium
Jones, Julie	University of Sheffield, UK
de Lavergne, Casimir	LOCEAN, France
Marshall, Gareth	British Antarctic Survey, UK
Masson-Delmotte, Valérie	LCSE, France
McClean, Julie	Scripps, USA
Morrison, Adele	Princeton University, USA
Orsi, Anaïs	LSCE, France
Raphael, Marilyn	UCLA, USA
Renwick, James	Victoria University Wellington, NZ
Schneider, Dave	NCAR, USA
Severinghaus, Jeff	Scripps, USA
Simpkins, Graham	UCI, USA
Stenni, Barbara	Università Ca’ Foscari Venezia, Italy
Swingedouw, Didier	University of Bordeaux, France
Twedt, Judy	University of Washington, USA
Vance, Tessa	Antarctic Climate & Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre, Australia
Wilkinson, Clive	University of East Anglia, UK
Wilson, Rob	University of St Andrews, UK
Zajaczkovski, Uriel	Scripps, USA

Agenda – Preliminary Program (as of 15 March 2015)

Tuesday March 24

To join us online for Tuesday: https://global.gotomeeting.com/join/897678501, Access Code: 897-678-501

08:30-09:00	Continental Breakfast, Coffee and Registration
09:00-09:15	Welcome and objectives of the workshop (S. Gille, J. Jones, H. Goosse)
	Session 1: Overview The goal here is to present an overview of the main recent studies analyzing the changes in Antarctic climate variability over the last decades to centuries and the extrapolar-polar connections.
09:15-10:15	Theme: Atmosphere A review of recent Antarctic and Tropical atmospheric variability, and their connections: Ryan Fogt Isotopic records from ice cores and past snow accumulation in Antarctica: Barbara Stenni Historic Meteorological Observations for the Southern Ocean: Clive Wilkinson
10:15-10:45	Questions – Discussion
10:45-11:15	Coffee Break
11:15-12:00	Theme: Ocean Deep ocean temperature changes: Casimir de Lavergne Upper ocean temperature and ocean response to winds/SAM: Sarah Gille Decadal to centennial scale variability from historical and palaeoclimate observations: Ian Goodwin and Xavier Crosta
12:00-12:30	Questions – Discussion
12:30-14:00	Lunch Break
14:00-14:45	Theme: Sea Ice Proxy records: Nerilie Abram, Xavier Crosta Satellite data: Ian Eisenman, Graham Simpkins, James Renwick Historical marine data: Clive Wilkinson, Nick Rayner
14:45-15:15	Questions – Discussion
15:15-15:45	Coffee Break
15:45-16:30	Theme: Models Response to the forcing (CMIP5 simulations): Casimir de Lavergne Tropical-polar interactions (including ENSO): Ryan Fogt, Dave Schneider, James Renwick Influence of the winds and of SAM: Matt England, Adele Morrison, James Renwick Ice-ocean interactions and the role of freshwater input: Didier Swingedouw, Adele Morrison
16:30-17:00	Questions – Discussion

Wednesday March 25

To join us online for Wednesday, https://global.gotomeeting.com/join/812039149, Access Code: 812-039-149

08:30-09:00	Continental Breakfast and Coffee
	Session 2: Short Presentations on Specific Topics
09:00-10:30	Part 1 – Chair: Marilyn Raphael Antarctic seasonal station-based pressure reconstructions back to 1905: Ryan Fogt, Julie Jones, Dave Schneider Reconstructing the SAM from ships’ logbook data: Julie Jones Looking for multidecadal variability in the 110-year Orcadas temperature records: Pablo Canziani, Zitto, Barrucand, Piotrokowski. Comparing the impacts of tropical SST variability and polar stratospheric ozone depletion on the Southern Ocean westerlies: David Schneider Antarctic moss banks as a new source of terrestrial palaeoclimate data: Dan Charman Characteristics of decadal-scale environmental variability in the Antarctic Peninsula region: Nerile Abram
10:30-11:00	Coffee Break
11:00-12:30	Part 2 – Chair: Matthew England Reconstruction of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation from the Law Dome ice core: Tessa Vance Temperature reconstructions from Antarctica, moving beyond the water isotope proxy: Anais Orsi Mean temperature and salinity in the Southern Ocean from Argo- Characterizing the contemporary state as a benchmark for evaluating past change: Sarah Gille and Uriel Zajaczkovski Impact of freshwater release on the Southern Ocean: Didier Swingedouw Towards a coupled reanalysis in the Southern Ocean covering the last centuries: Hugues Goosse A spurious jump in the satellite record: Has Antarctic sea ice expansion been overestimated?: Ian Eisenman The effect of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation on climatic trends in Antarctic sea ice extent: Howard Diamond
12:30-13:45	Lunch Break
	Session 3: Preparation of the review paper The goal is to determine the structure of the review paper and to prepare future work.
13:45-15:00	Discussion in each working group
15:00-15:30	Coffee Break
15:30-16:00	Reports of the different working groups
16:00-17:30	Discussion of the structure of the paper planned as an outcome of the workshop

Thursday March 26

To join us online for Thursday, https://global.gotomeeting.com/join/517876477, Access Code: 517-876-477

08:30-09:00	Continental Breakfast and Coffee
	Session 4: Future Activities
09:00-10:30	Organization of the paper and distribution of the tasks
10:30-11:00	Coffee Break
11:00-12:30	Discussion on additional activities, interactions with other groups, etc.
12:30-14:00	Lunch Break
14:00-16:00	Additional discussions, if needed.

Online Meeting Participation

For online participation, we will use CliC’s GoToMeeting Platform (www.gotomeeting.com). If you have not used this system before, we suggest logging on ~15 minutes before the start of the first day – a small plugin will need to be downloaded from the web and installed on your computer the first time you use it (after that you should not need to reinstall the plug in). You have the ability to test your audio to make sure we can hear you, etc. There is a chat box that you can use to ask questions, chat to other online participants, etc. You will be able to hear the presenter and see the slides – and we are hoping to have video of the presenter as well (that part will depend on the bandwidth of participants, etc). If you prefer to connect using a telephone, please contact Jenny Baeseman prior to the meeting.

If you would like to ask a question or provide a comment during the meeting, please us the chat box to alert the online moderator that you would like to speak so we can get that attention of the presenter. We will then give you the floor to ask your question to the room. Please be sure to mute your line (by clicking the microphone icon) when you are not speaking to reduce background noise.

If you are a presenter, we will give you the ability to share your computer screen. This means that you can give the presentation from your own computer and use whatever platform you normally do (ie PC, Mac, Keynote, PowerPoint, etc*).

If you have participated in an online meeting before, you know that there can sometimes be technical glitches and challenges to overcome and that discussions can often be hard to hear. We will try our best to overcome these.

*Please note that a PC or Mac is required (Android or Apple mobile devices can also be used). Unfortunately gotomeeting does not work with LINUX based machines. More information about system requirements can be found here: http://support.citrixonline.com/GoToMeeting/all_files/GTM010003

To join the meeting, simply click on the link corresponding to the day and follow the instructions.

Tuesday, 24 March (09:00 – 18:00 PDT (California time))
https://global.gotomeeting.com/join/897678501
Access Code: 897-678-501
To join the meeting by telephone and not a computer, phone numbers can be found here: https://global.gotomeeting.com/897678501/numbersdisplay.html

Wednesday, 25 March (09:00 – 18:00 PDT (California time))
https://global.gotomeeting.com/join/812039149
Access Code: 812-039-149
To join the meeting by telephone and not a computer, phone numbers can be found here: https://global.gotomeeting.com/812039149/numbersdisplay.html

Thursday, 26 March (09:00 – 16:00 PDT (California time))
https://global.gotomeeting.com/join/517876477
Access Code: 517-876-477
To join the meeting by telephone and not a computer, phone numbers can be found here: https://global.gotomeeting.com/517876477/numbersdisplay.html

Downloads

Antarctic and Southern Ocean Historic Data as of 20 Dec 2014

Images of 1856-1900 High Latitude Shipping Routes

… these and other files of interest can be found in the Downloads folder for the PCPI activity.

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