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a core project of
2018WCRPspon col July2018 01 1

Quantifying the influence of sea ice internal variability in CMIP5 models

Dirk Olonscheck (dirk.olonscheck[@]mpimet.mpg.de)

The scientific questions that will be studied:
* How does unforced climate variability and ensemble spread compare to each other?
* How does internal variability of climate variables change for future simulations with a large CO 2 forcing?
* Why do models show largely different manifestations of internal variability of sea ice?
* What do we learn from evaluating CMIP5 sea-ice simulations by consistently taking estimates of internal variability for all CMIP5 models into account?
* Which processes cause internal variability of sea ice and how much do they contribute to the total internal variability of sea ice?

The type of analyses that will be conducted:
* We develop a simple method that regresses each model’s estimate of internal variability from the pre-industrial control simulation to the variability derived from a model’s ensemble simulations.
* We further use feedback locking within one model to quantify how much of the variability of sea ice arises from various climate feedbacks.